One of the biggest challenges for boxing punters is the number of intangibles unique to combat sport. It is relatively easy for an experienced viewer of the sport to assess who, between two men, is the superior technician. But who has the greater heart, the more robust chin, who is mentally stronger and can better sustain themselves under pressure? These are the mysteries which make boxing such a compelling sport but also so perplexing for prospective gamblers.
The London clash this Saturday (February 23) between bitter super-middleweight rivals James DeGale, an Olympic gold medallist and former two-time world champion, and Chris Eubank Jr, son of a legendary father and thus far a professional nearly-man, is ostensibly a meeting of known quantities. Harleden's DeGale is technically adept, fast of both hand and foot and with an underrated physical strength and power. Eubank Jr is the more explosive, always super-fit, flashy and confident but with technical limitations underlined by his only two defeats, to skilful opponents in Billy Joe Saunders and George Groves.
Delve deeper however or, indeed, ask the majority of boxing pundits and industry insiders, and one key question invariably arises when trying to pick a winner at the O2 Arena this weekend. Is DeGale 'shot', as in an irrevocably faded force? Three fights ago, and following serious shoulder surgery, he shockingly lost his IBF title to unheralded American Caleb Truax, who outworked and outfought the off-colour champion. DeGale regained the belt in a bloody, gruelling battle last April but again appeared off the pace, and trying to force himself into the dazzling form of old. He later revealed he had taken the rematch too soon and that an Achilles issue had also flared up.
Going into the Eubank grudge match, DeGale insists all is well in mind and body, that he has knocked long-distance running on the head and modified his training to accommodate the advancing years (he is 33 to Eubank's 29) and weakened body. But seasoned observers cannot simply forget the run of tough fights and sustained punishment DeGale endured even before Truax highlighted a decline which may or may not be temporary. He struggled with trialhorse Porky Medina and lost his two front teeth against Badou Jack.
The unavoidable truth is that while the best version of DeGale - the one who defeated Andre Dirrell in Boston for his world title - almost certainly overcomes the best Eubank, we cannot know until Saturday night if that vintage has forever soured. If the DeGale who twice went life-and-death with Truax turns up, Eubank, a narrow favourite with the bookies, is more than capable of capitalising with rapid-fire combinations and pressure-fighting. But there is a significant doubt regarding the Brighton man too: can he finally produce his best form on the biggest stage? The addition of a new head trainer at least suggests that is the intention.
It largely comes down to faith. Do you believe DeGale when he insists he is back to his best? He certainly looked slim and sharp at the media workout last week but his fragile body has yet to be put under strain for 12 hard rounds. Do you believe Eubank that he has wised up, worked on his flaws and will listen to the man in the corner? We shall see.
Basically, if you take DeGale at face value, bet on him to win on points at a best-price 2-1. He is a stiff but not concussive puncher and six of his last seven contests have gone the distance, plus Junior seems to have inherited his old man's iron jaw. If, however, you feel DeGale is a spent force, Eubank is ready at last to take over or a combination of the two, then go for him to score a stoppage as "Chunky" fades in the later rounds (9-12) at an enticing 7/1.